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(Written in 2003, updated since) Reccurent problems (Covid-19, SARS) remind us that new epidemics (Corona Viruses, SARS, AIDS...) could, at any time, cause million deaths (like the spanish flu did) and even threaten the very survival of our civilization. Science seems unable to prevent this, and genetics could even create new risks. However free, simple and efficient solutions exist, here and now, to block the propagation of epidemics, or at least to significantly improve our chances of not being among the victims.
Covid19: after the WHO 5 994 000 people died for not reading this page (March 8, 2022). After a study in The Lancet, 18 200 000 died (counting the excess of mortality in 2020 and 2021). Still an effort, and you will reach 60 millions, as in 1918!
(Permalink)In 1918, the spanish flu killed 21 millions peoples in the world. Every year, the «benign» flu claims tens of thousands lives (20 000 in the USA) and keeps all of us stuck in bed several weeks a year. The AIDS epidemics is now out of control, even if it could be very simple to protect us. The recent SARS epidemics, despites a contagion rate weaker that the flu (seemingly) provoked a world wide psychosis, but this fear however did not incited much people to take efficient steps.
Frequent travels and new ways of life cut off nature, already strongly improved the odds for a new epidemics to spread in the world in some weeks, see in some days. Worse, viruses and bacteria mutate constantly, exchange gens, or suddenly wake up from natural reservoirs where they were sleeping since millions years. There is thus a constant risk of the appearance of new diseases, against which we would have no immunity. At any moment, in some weeks, see in some days, an unknown epidemic could sweep the world and take millions lives, disorganize our societies, and even make our civilisations disappear.
(Permalink)But the greatest dangers come from the genetic sciences.
The point here is not to reject genetics, but to be aware of some facts:
To create artificial viruses is a technics used as a routine in public or private labs. The necessary technology is within reach of a government, a rich person, or any great organization (As seen with the Raël sect, technically and financially able to try cloning). To create a new dangerous virus is within reach of thousands of persons in the world. Some of these peoples could even be unknown, or with very unexpected motives.
We immediatelly think to the biological warfare, theoretically forbidden, but labs could easily continue to work on it confidencially, on the command of governments, or without their knowledge. Horrible collections of diseases exist, hold by public organisms, by private firms, even sometimes by simple individuals (Daan Goosen case, South Africa).
Certain politicians complacently added fuel to the fear of anthrax or variola. In facts these diseases are not very dangerous, as they do not propagate easily, and only in dreadful hygiena conditions, happily disappeared of most countries.
But a real hazard comes from bacterias or viruses which propagate easily, even in the mild hygiena conditions which prevail in western countries, such as flu, cold, gastroenteritis, which strike us every years.
TODAY (OR SOON) THOUSANDS OF PERSONS ARE ABLE TO MODIFY THE VIRUSE OF THE ORDINARY FLU, TO ADD IT DANGEROUS OR DEADLY GENES. IF SUCH A THING WOULD HAPPEN, THE MAJORITY OF THE WORLD POPULATION COULD DISAPPEAR.
Fascist governments, rich nutters, terrorists groups, sects, and even simple lab workers, could try to launch deadly or disabling epidemics, or to do «jokes» such as modifying benigne viruses to make them produce various substances active on the human body and mind. Imagine what could be the results of a viagra flu, or a LSD cold... Bacteria modified by pharmaceutic compagnies could leak by accident (so they shall leak). For instance escherishia coli producing insuline would provoque a serious disease, contagious, and difficult to cure. Besides such an accident, Tchernobyl would be just a gentle joke.
To speak clearly, we could face in some years a situation similar to that of Internet, where each day could see a new disease, in an enslessly series of parades and counter-attacks.
So there is really the need to a global solution, which coult twart any epidemics from its very start, whatever viruse is involved..
Panic. To take violent or discriminatory steps against people or groups who would be presented as «responsible» of the disease, or against persons who would refuse useless or abusive measures, or against people who would try to apply true solutions.
Secrecy. Certain governments, «Not to create a panic», or not to look unable, would try to hide the beginning of an epidemics (SARS in China). But it is preciselly at the beginning that we can efficiently gain control on an epidemics.
Waiting, or take delaying steps. In an epidemics, efficient decisions are to be taken as soon as the first hours.
Abusive authority. Useless quarantines or travel restrictions could have a human cost higher than the epidemics.
Abusive freedom. In the name of freedom, to allow for useless and dangerous behaviours which spread the disease, or to refuse necessary measures of isolation or hygiena. For instance AIDS spreaded through sexual vagrancy, and it now maintains itself mainly with prostitution. Certain fascist pressure groups made bear the blame to the society, while at the same time increasing the standing of sexual vagrancy behaviours which spread the disease. So the sexual freedon is now in fact reduced. On the countrary a spiritual work on enhancing the ability of living together would have both increased freedom while reducing the occasions to spread the disease.
puritanism (added 2008) Some nutter religious groups try to cast shame and censorship on diseases like AIDS, thus hampering the prevention. Or they propose illusory solutions, such as «chastity rings»... for women only! The most fascist try to make believe that sexual mutilations such as circumcision or excision, would protect against AIDS! This is of course pure psychiatric deliria.
To rely only on vaccines: To develop and test a vaccine requires years, when an epidemics develops in only some days. Anyways, more than one century of intensive searches had produced vaccines only for a small percentage of deseases. Certain vaccines could even have unacceptable noxious effects, which would be imposed even to persons in good health. In these conditions, it appears illusory to spend all the money and all the research effort on only the search for vaccines, or to base prevention on only vaccines. It is criminal to take no measures against a disease under the pretext that «we shall find a vaccine»
Added March 2022: Thanks to the evolution of science, I have to soften the above, because today creating a vaccine takes only one year. Moreover the covid epidemic brought a real novelty: mRNA vaccines, which do not bring the dangers of classical DNA vaccines. Indeed, the RNA cannot penetrate our DNA, and it is expelled from the cells in some days.
(Permalink) The terrific picture above just completelly evaporates if we consider that, in facts, it is relativelly easy to protect ourselves against the main sources of transmission active today: the transmission by saliva, nose secretions, and somewhat also by excrements.
The basic principle of this transmission is simple: mucus or saliva contain dangerous bacteria or viruses. Coughing, spluttering or sneezing project fine infected particules in the air, that other persons will breathe. To blow our nose, lick our fingers, and then touch objects, infect these objects. This is the transmission mode of flus, colds, gastroenteritis, childhood diseases, and numerous diarrhoeas.
In countries where there is no drinkable water, intestinal bacterias can contaminate drinking water. But, even in western countries, to wipe ourself in the toilets infects our hands, then the objects we touch: if other persons touch these objects, then touch their mouth, so he dangerous bacteria or virus get in them. This is the transmission mode of cholera, of polyomyelitis and numerous other diarrhoeas.
The very actual risk of accident or taking over of the search in genetics imposes to the governments to take immediatelly some commonsense measures, without awaiting for an epidemics which could suppress in first all the politicians and all the geneticians.
(Permalink) But can we really trust governments who awaited twenty years before reacting to detering issues such as the ozone depletion or the greenhouse effect? Can we expect something of all this mass of grey and average people, with whom we can never communicate, unable as they are of only considering to change their behaviour? We begin to know the tune: simply with denouncing a disgusting and useless habit, as to lick ones fingers to turn the pages of a book, we shall only get back a vaguely astonished look, or sniggers, we shall be called utopists, pananoids, leftists, bourgeois, sectarian, anarchist, anti-freedom. There are however only very simple things to understand, and, since I was able to find them, everybody can find them too, and theoretically I should not need to publish this page.
Happily, the hygiena methods described above are of an easy use for all, without awaiting that the «majority» gets really involved, nor than the governments organise it. Or course this methods will give their full efficiency only if everybody use them. But, if not, at least the people who are conscious and able to decide of their behaviour can obtain some protection, or at least a selective advantage over the unconscious, with the application of the following methods.
Viruses are fragile; they do not survive more than several minutes in the air, they cannot go throught skin, they fear soap. So it is enought to oppose them a systematic barrier at every occasion to get in the mouth, the nose, the eyes. It is quite easy; it is enough to check all these occasions. But we need many attention, as only one forgetting can make a hole in the barrier and be fatal. For instance, many people wash their hands when they get out of the toilets. But if, while turning off the water, they touch a tap that everybody touched without never cleaning it, so this «hygiena» is really illusory!
All these precautions may sound complicated and difficult to remember. But there is a very simple mean to efficiently focus our mind on the cautions to be taken. We have an instinct deeply rooted in us, and easy to awake: the disgust of illness and of ill persons. During some days, we think about all the occasions where viruses can pass into us. This instinct will awake quickly, and it will soon warn us loudly at each occasion! The only difficulty, in fact, is not to go too far, not to indulge into paranoïa or in the contempt of everybody. Keep our anger for the only who deliberatelly refuse to apply these basic hygiena rules.
Especially to be put in quarantine may be very unpleasant; but we must really understand that the governments have only this kind of means at their disposal. They cannot avoid people to cough in their hand and after have a handshake with us. So any person who will protest against a quarantine will have to consider not to aim at the wrong target: responsibles are egoïstic people, not governments.
Certain persons may wish not to be contaminated, but without bothering to contaminate others. This attitude is false, as if, out of carelessness, we create a danger for others, so we engage our karma, and even in certain cases our responsibility in front of the law.
Certain people may think that to protect ourselves of certain contacts with others may be to come back to a «bourgeois morals». Such specious arguments already did much to hamper efficient steps against AIDS. In facts, a minimum of hygiena absolutelly not prevent to share some tenderness, love, ideas, enthusiasm, spirit, in brief the most important, when sharing our mucus never brought anything to anybody.
We can consider our effort of respecting other's health as a part of our spiritual work, as our Karma Yoga.
We can also consider our effort of respecting other's health as a part of our spiritual work to keep on a pure and poetical vibration.
Certain persons refuse the «religious beliefs». Me I refuse the materialistic beliefs, such as for instance that the evil we do to others would never come back to us. As a matter of facts, nearby all the new diseases are linked in a way or another to the nasty habit to kill animals to eat meat: -AIDS passed to humans from poachers cutting up chimpanzees -SRAS and avian flu come from animal farms -The mad cow would never had appeared without the mad idea to make them eat meat. Curious as random can look like bad karma...
At last an epidemics happening in the today conditions could lead to a Darwinian selection of the people able to decide their own behaviour, and to the elimination of all those who act out of conditionning, ideology, social conformism, etc... (Written in 2003. I shall not repeat in 2020...) As the catastrophe which eliminated the dinosaurs, the modern epidemics could at last profit to manking evolution. Some will shout after the injustice; but in this incredibly happy epoch where more and more spiritual work methods are available, everyone can gain his own freedom to place himself where appropriate.
(Added in 2009)
(Permalink) It is interesting to see at least some official bodies like the American Dietetic Association ending to advertise the informations of this page. Here, about cought, they seem to plagiarize me! But it is not that: true ideas always end to be found independently by clever people.
However I allow myself to show some astonishment of the virtuous panic or our public institutions, facing a swine flu epidemic which claimed «only» some hundred lives, when previous epidemics claimed thousands into the complete silence of the medias. But we better understand the cause of this sudden compassion: this time pharmacy trusts claim to have a vaccine ready in time... What better advertising than a small quarantine, useless but well in sight of the medias!
Anover novelty is the scientific recognition of the role played by the great concentration camps for animals doomed to butchery: SRAS, avian flu, swine flu, everything comes from here. The specialists could even track a camp in Mexico, where the swine flu appeared. Dreadful promiscuity, deterent hygiena and exchange of reproductors made of these camps true P4 genetic laboratories, in the open air, recombining and breeding all kinds of viruses. And this is not new, flu exists since tens of years...
And if we make laws for the «ethic treatment or animals», or for «organic meat», the camps will be simply globalized into law less countries! The only solution to get out of thi hell is to stop eating meat.
(Added in 2014)
(Permalink) Again, we hear about quarantine, checking of aircrafts... and of vaccines which «will« come soon. This time the cause is deforestation, which brings the populations in contact with fruit-eating bats, natural bearers of the virus.
And of course, idiotic behaviours of «Ebola-deniers» hampering the work of the teams on the field, while Africans residing in other countries have to face totally unfounded accusations.
In short, we are still in the same point.
(Added May 05, 2020)
(Permalink) This pandemic of a highly contagious virus, of the calibre of the 1918 Spanish flu, with the potential to kill 100 million people, confirmed the relevance of the warnings on this page. But it also shown that some irresponsible politicians were not yet ready to take the necessary measures.
Korea has set an example, with systematic testing and searching for the contaminated, eliminating the epidemic within a month, without containment.
Many countries waited for two or even three months, which found them unprepared, and forced them in a containment policy, much more costly for both the economy and for freedom.
France found itself a bit apart, totally unprepared, with its sadomasochistic austerity policies which sabotaged our response capacities, or with president Macron issuing an ultimatum to the virus, as to end up a strike. Added: It is only on May 6, after four months of epidemics, that we read that tests, Korean way, were systematically done, in a mail from the ministry oh Health, Olivier Véran.
Finally, countries having elected populist governments practising denial, incapable of discipline or leadership, are paying the high price, with a record mortality rate. They risk becoming endemic spots, and red zones with travel bans or quarantines on travellers arriving from them.
On individual behaviours, I am proud to note much more civism than I expected, fruit of the ongoing fast spiritual evolution of mankind. Especially many groups and associations not intended for this, turned into helpers. I am still seeing swines coughing without protection, but this seems linked to minority negative political opinions. Some people seem just unable to accept any discipline, even in front of death.
(Added May 05, 2020, at the occasion of the Covid-19 epidemics)
(Permalink) One thing I did not foresaw was the relevance of face masks. They however were of utter importance in 1918, and mandatory in many places.
Masks: The lie
The idea that the masks would be useless was first propagated by no less than the WHO (Page deleted since). Indeed, the global state of unpreparedness led to a shortage of masks, and this pious lie allowed them to be reserved for those who needed them the most: health workers. But by saying this, they were also acknowledging the fact: masks are effective in protecting healthy people!
Since the WHO removed this lie, and it recommends the use of masks: «Wearing a medical mask can limit the spread of certain respiratory viral diseases, including COVID-19» (on their page on May 2, 2020). Recommendation with a warning attached: the mask is not enough, we must also wash our hands, keep our distance, cough into our sleeve, etc. all recommendations which are on this page for 17 years, with the hydroalcoholic bottle which is in my car for 10 years.
The problem with such a lie is that it became a widespread belief, ineradicable even by those who created it! And in France it is used as a pretext for doing nothing about masks (and disinfectants too: in the country of wine, at the fifth month of the epidemics, there is still no way to have alcohol!!). At the moment I am writing (May 4), the only way to get masks is to order them on Amazon at 0.4€ each, with a 2 months delay (In China!! No wonder this country is in the process of colonizing Europe)
This shortage of masks becomes an excellent pretext for black market, which even not hides itself, with thefts and prices up to 5€! (reusable, dare we hope). For those without memory, read «au bon beurre» by Jean Dutourd, with the confirmation by a direct witness that this actually existed.
Added on May 22, 2020: if the risk of a black market is waning (at least in my country, France), there is another one: that of «placebo masks» for the general public, much less efficient than medical masks.
Added on May 22, 2020: Still no indication either on a recyclable or biodegradable alternative to meltblown polypropylene, which will soon become a big issue. Such an initiative would be an occasion to slow down the descent of Western countries to the Third World, compared to Asian countries.
Added on May 22, 2020: For surgical masks (blue with three folds), the international norm is ISO 1348514. In European Union, abiding to the european regulation 2017/74515 and the EN 1468316 norm allow for the CE marking. For the FFP masks (rigid shell), the EN 149 norm defines three classes of firltration efficiency: FFP1, FFP2 and FFP33.
Masks: the information
The problem is that there are a lot of different types of masks on the market, or people who make their own, without really knowing the effectiveness of the different materials. The wikipedia pages on surgical masks and fabric masks reflect this fuzzyness. What we however need are scientifically tested masks with a stamp which guarantees their conformity.
We also need masks which are aesthetically pleasing, comfortable (remember these pictures of Chinese nurses with sores on their faces), and above all reusable, if we don't want an inflation of costs and wastes.
Here is a proposal for a simple signage, on the example of beach danger flags:
☻ Green mask: no danger, wearing masks is not necessary (but not forbidden: this would require trust in the health authorities, discredited by the above lie).
☻ Orange mask: Wearing of masks is recommended, but not enforced.
☻ Red mask: Wearing of masks is compulsory, with coercive measures.
☻ White mask: special circumstances where we must show our face, for example at an administrative desk, to prove our identity. It would also be interesting to get back to the good old hygiaphones... disappeared for some unknown reason.
(Added May 05, 2020, at the occasion of the covid-19 epidemics)
(Permalink) I started to warn in 2009 about the dire danger of viruses recombinations and antibiotic resistance in concentration camps for animals. By the time my voice was quite alone, but today it is a symphony of calls by scientists, ecologists, social militants, artists, spiritual people, to reduce or stop meat, and stop the terrible wounds we inflict to nature every day. Each of our evil actions contributes, by a variety of ways, to make us more sick, more unhappy, more lonely, more no future.
So it is clearly time to pass in the upper gear, stop meat, stop destroying the last bits of nature, stop voting for crooks, clowns or morons.
(Added June 06, 2020, at the occasion of the covid-19 epidemics)
(Permalink) One thing I did not foresaw 17 years ago is that the conspiracy sickness would grow to such an extent as becoming a major social handicap, and even a weapon of political destruction. So, during the Covid19 epidemic, we heard everything, accusations against this or that country for creating the virus, opposition to health measures, opposition to remedies, infatuation with false treatments, hazing and racism against citizens of various countries, etc.
About the topic of this page, this situation poses a twofold problem:
☻What the conspirationists describe can actually happen: pathogen created or released by accident or even intentionally. Such accidents already happened before, as well as terrorist attacks, and the Aum sect had anthrax labs! Fortunately, so far none of these cases degenerated into an epidemic. But if this was to happen, it remains possible that the information could be censored, or muddled by contradictory «expertises».
☻If this was to happen (when it shall happen), then there is a great risk that vital information would be received as a conspiracy theory, leading to its rejection by society. This would delay the necessary action or prevent finding the responsible.
For this reason, conspirationism must urgently be considered as a serious social disease, just like racism.
(Added June 06, 2020, at the occasion of the covid-19 epidemics)
(Permalink) We can easily refute the conspiracy theories as what covid was created intentionally (as a solution to overpopulation, for the less worse theories). However, this should not blind us to the fact this is technically perfectly possible, and the motives of the perpetrators would not necessarily be so pretty.
Can a natural epidemic like covid, or an artificial one, exercise Darwinian selection on Humanity? Probably not for covid, because the number of deaths is far too low (0.075% of the population), and moreover, mostly old people who no longer pass on their genes. However, the warning at the beginning of this page in 2003 remains valid, and the foreseeable end of the covid epidemic does not diminish the probability of another epidemic, and even of a much worse one.
A disease can indeed produce a Darwinian adaptation. The history of epidemics even shows that this is frequent. However, these are mostly adaptations of immunity, which have little influence on the body or on the mind.
Where a massively lethal epidemic could produce an adaptation is by selecting people capable of good protective attitudes, while people who would be in denial, irresponsible or asocial, would be eliminated (a frequent case for covid). However, these characteristics are not hereditary, but only transmitted by education or by society.
So let us not wait for an epidemic much worse than covid to do our psycho-education, sitting quietly on our cushion.
(Added June 06, 2020, at the occasion of the covid-19 epidemics)
(Permalink) Today, September 2023, the state of pandemic emergency is officially over. In any case, there is no longer requests for masks or vaccines. So that we can start to draw conclusions.
☻The main is that, despite large vaccine campaigns, or in China very coercive isolation policies, the pandemic continued for several years, while it should even not have happened to start with. This clearly points at a significant minority of egocentric or sociopathic people who purposely ignored the hygiene methods, in order to keep a constant transmission path for the disease. For proof, I see reappearing the disgusting behaviours we learned to avoid, like sneezing in the hands. It is clear that the covid pandemic was not effective as a Darwinian elimination of such deliberate antisocial behaviours. Yet it was a serious warning: now people are ignorant only on purpose.
☻The coercive isolation policies in China were effective, but the pandemic flared when they were lifted. This shows that, here too, the epidemics was indeed «cultivated» by a minority of people refusing the protective gestures. As predicted earlier on this page, such acts really are the main causal agent of epidemics today. And measures affecting the majority will remain inefficient as long as we do not address this minority of anti-lifers.
☻Vaccines were effective too, but many people were caught by antisocial or reactionary conspirationism, which made them refuse those vaccines. Still vaccines protected the conscious people against the intentional spreading of the disease.
☻This went to a point where conspirationism is now considered as a epidemic of its own: the infodemic. It evolved quickly from useless and outlandish targets (Reptilians...) to a reactionary opposition to the necessary progresses of Mankind: anti-ecology, climate denial, anti-feminism, etc. Not forgetting the traditional racism and antisemitism.
☻As usual, the sadomasochistic austerity policies cost us a lot. For instance the French president Nicolas II the stark had ordered the destruction of the masks factories, because he did not understood what they were useful for. Of course smart people like me had mask reserves, because we guessed that such incompetent governments would fail to provide a sufficient supply in case of a pandemic. Still I had not enough, and I had to order more on amazon, which got them from... China. Speak of strategic independency, after that. (Actually, the French government distributed masks, but made of fabric, that is less efficient and more expensive than surgical masks)
☻The covid led to the creation of mRNA vaccines, which are much less dangerous than DNA vaccines (since they do not enter our genome like DNA vaccines do). Yet they still produced some long covid cases, the later seeming to be an auto-immune reaction triggered by a protein of the virus. But the responsibility of these cases goes to the one who refused the basic hygiene measures, and made the vaccine an inescapable solution.
☻We do not have official figures in Africa and generally in poor countries or dictatorship, unable or not willing to make surveys. Yet afterward, the study of mortality figures showed that the pandemic was as strong there, but not much worse. Perhaps the local rules of hygiene (like the Muslim rules) were effective at curbing the transmission.
☻This case of Africa tells us what happens in the absence of government policies (isolation, vaccines). Personal protection gestures, like distancing, masks and hand hygiene, etc. (as I described above 20 years ago) are then the only protection. Yet they are effective, but only for the persons who applird them. In any case, as I predicted they remain the sole protection against the inability of governments and organized societies.
☻The origin of the pandemic was accurately pinpointed by exquisite science studies, in a stall of the Huanan market in Wuhan, selling living wild animals. The maps of the first cases and of virus detections show a galaxy of them, centred on this stall precisely. Two animals were infected, and transmission to some dozens of Humans occurred by licking, sneezing, dust, etc.
☻Instead, the early hypothesis of an accidental leak from the Wuhan Institute of Virology was never proved, even after international investigations on the site. It eventually vanished in front of the Huanan Market observations. This institute was precisely studying such kind of viruses, and it was uniquely placed for that. Hence its possession of several samples similar to the covid. But the covid-19 itself was not found in their collection. I bet it is, now.
☻This Chinese origin was a pretext for anti-Chinese racism, and conspirationism targetting China or Chinese people at large.
☻Conversely, the government of China sees conspirationism in the precise description of the origin of the virus in their country. They feel guilty that the virus started in China. Yet this is not special to them, and previous epidemics started in all sorts of countries in the world. The only common point is that nearby all of them started in meat production. If some want to feel guilty, this is a good motive, at least.
☻We would expect that the restrictions on physical social life would have produced an increase of social life in virtual worlds. It is right the contrary which happened: a general retraction of virtual social life, and even of physical social life, which persisted years after all the mandatory restrictions were lifted. I have no idea of what produced this worrying effect. At least it is a huge missed occasion.
All this confirms all what was written on this page, before the covid pandemic. But it especially shows that our response to pandemics can be bettered. Indeed, a deadly pandemic can still reappear at any time, even tomorrow. All what was written in this page remains pertinent. But in more it is now proven.
Added November 2023: I finally got it! I lowered my guard too soon, intimidated of wearing a mask in public. I don't know who contaminated me, but I several times spotted people maneuvering to get uselessly close to me and blow in my face. On the other hand, I was in a meditation class when the disease started, and nobody got it from me, thanks to a mask and to the protective gestures. So this confirms my view: the superspreader events scientists speak about as the main contagion channel, are deliberate actions by some individuals.
(Added xxx xx, 20xx)
(Permalink) Are you ready?